Prochaine intervention militaire en Haiti ?

Rappel du premier message :

Gwotoro a commencé un fil à ce sujet mais sans mettre l'article principal, que je publie ici. La source est une compagnie de sécurité internationale qui s'occupe de la protection de personnalité mais aussi de la formation d'armée. A priori les renseignements devraient être sérieux, mais certaines réactions de proches me poussent à penser le contraire.
Je souligne que le nom du rédacteur à l'air haitien.



KIDNAPPINGS: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC' ARMY POISED TO INVADE HAITI
By Leon François Cazeau, Chief, Political Analysis Division, Omega Military Consultant
Aug 14, 2006, 08:17





By Leon François Cazeau
Chief, Political Analysis Division
Omega Military Consultant


Port-au-Prince, Haiti (OMC). The Dominican Republic's military is preparing to launch raids throughout 6 key geographical and administrative departments of Haiti (West, Artibonite, Plateau Central, North, South, and Grand' Anse), in a bid to destroy the network of terrorist gangs responsible for a wave of kidnappings, that are seen as a threat to the national security of the Dominican Republic. Army units of the Dominican Republic would model their offensive in Haiti on the recent intervention of the Israeli army on the Israel-Lebanon border.

An international meeting was held by tele-conference on August 10, 2006, between London, Washington, Ottawa and Madrid, to evaluate the capabiilties and means of the Dominican military to mount an invasion of Haiti, and to decide on probable dates for such a military interventionm, between the end of the current year and spring of next year (2007). U.S. policy makers have not yet given a green light to this initiative, making it known that they would prefer a Haitian solution that involves the creation of a national anti-terrorist brigate (ATB) that would have the mission to put an end to the terrorist activities of the various underground and violent pro-Aristide para-military organiziations – cannibal and other kidnapping armies – that have replaced the regular units of the Haitian military (FAD'H) disbanded by the Lavalas regime. In this vein, Washington is hoping to see the formation of a new ministerial team, including a new Minister of Justice and Public Security, that would grant the fullest necessary powers to the ATB to act, with the support of MINUSTAH and the HNP.

The Dominicans want to see the effectiveness of the ATB as a new haitian anti-terrorist fighting unit, but feel ready to intervene should the new haitian military force fail to defeat the terrorists on their side of the island. To prove this point, the dominican army launched a vast military operation last week , that ended by mid-day with the arrest of over 3000 outlaws in their country, as a dress rehearsal meant to demonstrate their capabilities to take on the terrorists next door in Haiti. Because president Préval is widely perceived as incompetent by the dominicans, his government will not be forwarned or briefed on the timing of the dominican military intervention, as he is also seen as a friend of the terroritsts to whom he owes his victory at the recent presidential elections in his country. The dominicans are believed to be ready to act on the expected news that one or several of their 6 diplomats accreditated in Haiti, have been kidnapped by Haitian terrorists, as they claim to have been the case about 15 days ago with 25 of their citizens living in Haiti. It is noteworthy to mention that the relationship between the dominican Chief of Police (an army General), and his haitian counterpart (a low ranking former officer in the FAD'H, the haitian military) reflects the disequilibrium in rank.

At a time when Haitians experience a collective depression over the state of their country, an invation by the dominican army would be fairly easy. The U.N. forces in Haiti, largely symbolic, are not considered to be an obstacle. Several high ranking offices of the MINUSTHA are dominicans. Moreover, it is believed that, as was recently the case in Lebanon, U.N. offices in Haiti will be ransacked by furious Haitians, as the dominican militrary incursion in their country progresses. The U.N. force in Haiti is expected to refrain from confronting an advancing dominican military force, as they did in Lebanon, preferinng to convert themselves into boy scouts scurrying aid to the civilian population. The terrorists in Haiti are likened to the Hezbollah terrorist network in Lebanon. The dominicans intend to flush out the terrorists in Haiti, as a national security matter for their country and the entire island, and take charge of the administration of Haiti, as an occupying force. As the dominicans launch their military operations in Haiti, a complicit international community will grant them 2 months to achieve their objectives, before calling for a cease fire. Still, the dominican forces will be allowed an extra 3rd month to complete a major land offensive throghout most of Haiti. The presidents of the Dominican Republic and Haiti will then accept the terms of the cease fire, after what will amount to a massacre of Haitians by the dominican military forces.

In addition to simulated bombing raids being conducted by the dominican armed forces, hundreds if not thousands of army personnel, supported by artillery and air force units, have been deployed last Saturday, on the dominican side of the border with Haiti. High ranking leaders of the dominican armed forces have announced their intention to move these forces to occupy areas of the border considered to be dangerous and proned to massive illegal immigration by Haitians. They also expect to receive their orders to march into Haiti and flush out what they consider to be a Haitian Hezbollah, operating too close to their borders.

The Dominican Air Force plans to destroy all bridges linking different regions of Haiti, in a bid to isolate the different districts and local communes in the country. The capital city of Port-au-Prince will be pounded, along with regions extending from Kenscoff to Croix-des-Bouquets, villages of the Matheux zone, the Citadel in Cap-Haitien, and anihilate cities and villages of the South and Artibonite plains areas. Dominican marines will unleash a deluge of firepower on the shantytowns of Cité Soleil, Cité L'éternel, Jalousie, Lafossette and Comédie, before withdrawing to their staging area, near the border.

After 3 months of wholesale destruction in Haiti, the 15 members of the U.N. Security Council will oversee the implementation of a U.N. resolution (resolution 1791 or 1804), that will call for a complete cessation of all hostilities, obligating the underground armies of chimères to refrain from any attacks on dominican troops, and calling of the dominican republic to cease all offensive military operations against Haiti.

The government of the Dominican Republic will convene urgently to approve the U.N. resolution, although President Leonel Fernandez will have already given his nod. The Haitian government will approve the resolution unanymously, althoug Prime Minister Alexis will call for a new meeting of the U.N. Security Council, to spell out all aspects of the implementation of the resolution. The head of the Haitian underground terrorist army, Mr. Amaral Duclonas, will denounce what he will see as an unjust U.N. resolution, but will pledge to abide by the terms of the resolution.

The U.N. Security Council, and the Secretary of Staste of the United States, Ms. Condoleeza Rice, are trying to block the dominican initiative, knowing that it would not take more than a day to destroy Haiti almost totally, and that 3 months of offensive military operations by the dominicans will lead to an apocalyptic toll in the destruction of Haiti. If the interim U.N. forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL), increased from 2000 to 15000, with a stronger mandate, will be able to reconstruct Lebanon with massive financial support from the world's great powers, this will not be the case for Haiti. Which is why it is important for a new military force to take charge of counterterrorist activities in Haiti, as has been suggested by Mrs. Mirlande Manigat of the RDNP, or for a new anti-terrorist brigade (ATB) to be created, without delay, to confront and defeat the terrorist cells and other criminal gangs that are endangering the future of Haiti.

OBSERVER KEEN a écrit:mezanmi, nou pa we moun ki ekri analiz sa se yon rate ke li ye--- li si telman ap shashe pou kreye paralel ak ge libano-izraelyen an, li arive konsevwa yon seri de senaryo ki ridikil.
lap pale de kraze pon, men kraze pon libane yo te fet pou preveni hezbollah refouni tet li ak zam kap soti nan lakou siri ak iran, men nan ka ayiti ya, tout zanm yo soti nan frontye sendomeng--- setadi, si sendomeng bezwen kwense ti mesye kap resevwa zam ilegal yo, li tap sere boulon fontye li, se pa pon pou li ta kraze ki pa menm genyen an ayiti. e mwen panse ke si jeneral dominiken yo tap envizaje yon invazyon, fok yo ta pran sa mwen sot di la an konsiderasyon.
paralel la si telman eksesv, li devwale ote ya kom yon nonm ki pa gen okin kreyativite analitik, lap pale de air-force dominiken ap lage bom nan katye popile yo pou kraze baz gang yo, yon paralel ke li dedwi de ge libano-izrael la; men sa ke li pa rekonet, seke izrael gen potograf satelit lokalite ak baz hezbollah yo tandiske sendomeng pa gen lokalite ak baz gang yo--- prezimeman gang yo rete nan katye pov yo, katye ki strikti ki gen vertikalizasyon minim, yon reyalite ki gen tandans fe foto zonn nan paret "blurred" nan pwose " aerial optical resolution", yon teknoloji ke sendomeng pa menm genyen.
lefini tou, kidnapin yon sitwayen, se pa yon ground lejitim pou invazyon sitou si zam ke moun kap itilize pou fe kidnapin nan se nan peyi vwazin an ke li soti, sitou le peyi vwazin an gen yon istwa kote lap sipote ou tolere group destabilizate nan lakou lakay li.
mwen we nou ranse anpil, le nou kite yon moun kap ekri san panse ap vinn radote pou fe nou reyaji.
se pa invazyon sendomeng lan ki redikil paske invazyon sou preteks nasyonal sekirite se yon bagay ki konsevab, men se strateji ke ote ya bay la ki ridikilez, strateji ke jeneral yo pral enploye ya pou abouti ak okipasyon ayiti.
mwen pat ka rantre nan konvezasyon sa paske yo elimine forum lavalas la, e mwen pat konn adres nouvo forum nan.
se pa de radot nonm ki rele kazeau ekri, le fini misye jude ap di li gen le ayisyen, kom si neg le fe yon gwo dyob.
omega military se yon ti group neg kap jwe rol koutye.
menmjan yon koutye devan pepetyel ak konvenk yon egare ke kay lap lwe ou wa, se pou li, li ye, omega military se yon koutye kap shashe kliyen pou indistri sekirite ak milite, le yo jwenn yon kliyen, yon rele big boss la, si bagay la mashe, yon jwenn yon komisyon.

2 choses, M. Observer Keen :

lefini tou, kidnapin yon sitwayen, se pa yon ground lejitim pou invazyon sitou si zam ke moun kap itilize pou fe kidnapin nan se nan peyi vwazin an ke li soti, sitou le peyi vwazin an gen yon istwa kote lap sipote ou tolere group destabilizate nan lakou lakay li.
C'est pourtant sur cette base qu'Israel a envahi le Liban ;

le fini misye jude ap di li gen le ayisyen, kom si neg le fe yon gwo dyob.
c'était pour souligner que l'article était forcément très subjectif, étant donné l'hostilité légendaire existant entre certains haitiens et dominicains.

Je précise aussi que c'est Gwotoro et non pas moi qui a trouvé cet article sur le net. Je l'ai republié ici parce qu'il n'avait pas mis de lien direct ce qui diminuerait le nombre de lecteurs. D'ailleurs son post à ce sujet n'a pas eu énormément de commentaires.

Sa fè m ri,lè mwen wè yon seri de moun ki te pou koudeta 1991,ap kritike jan Aristide te tounen.
Sa ti nèg te vle,se pou yo te kite diktati militè an rete;pou yo te touye plis moun.

Ou byen tou,se pou te gen yon gè sivil?
Mwen ta pou sa wi,yon gè ta ka bay pèp la okazyon pou l tou netwaye peyi.
Men tou,si te gen yon gè,Etazini t ap ranfòse Lame Dayiti ,menm jan l te fè l dan de peyi tankou El Salvador ak Guatemala.
Nan ka sa a se dwat lan ki t ap ranfòse.

Retou Aristide pa Lame Ameriken se tankou yo di l "the lesser of two evils".
Ak retou an,menm si Ameriken te kontwole l,kontribye pou afebli reyaksyon an.
Yo pa gen Lame an,pou fè e defè lè yo vle kijan yo vle.
Dezyèm ranvèsman Aristide lan,se sa yo rele yon "temporary setback"

misye jude, se de bagay diferan, kidnape yon solda se yon deklarasyon de guerre, kidnape yon sivil ki pa fe pati de gouvenman, se yon zak kriminel ki dwe pase de pwose kriminel ak investigatif pou trouve li.
menm zak, men diferan konteks.
si sete yon sivil izraelyen yo te mare, izrael pa tap gen lejitimite pou rantre nan liban paske se tap rol interpol pou investige ak trouve sivil sa en accord avec gouvenman libane ak izraelyen.
menm zak, men diferan konteks!!!!!

jude, ou genle ap konprann diferans la? nan ka domikani ya, zam kap fe dezod an ayiti ya se nan lakou dominikani yo pase, tandiske zam ki tap teorize nan no izrael la se lakay lenmi izrael yo soti.
koman yo se menm bagay la? yo pa baze sou menm bagay, yonn se yon paramilite ak yon ajanda geo-politik, lot la se diferan group kriminel ki fe krim pou lajan sou kouveti politik.
yo tap menm bagay si zam ki tap teorize no izrael la, te soti nan lakou kay izrael.
si gen yon peyi ki gen yon lejitimite pou envayi, se tap ayiti ki te ka itilize moun nan batay ak kondisyon semi-esklavajis la kom rezon pou envahi sendomeng pou pwoteje vi sitwayen li yo.

Cher gentil observateur,
le texte d'Omega parle d'un enlèvement d'un officiel dominicain en Haiti qui, s'il n'est pas un militaire n'est pas vraiment un civil.

Et je ne crois pas avoir dit nul part que l'hypothèse du texte était similaire à la situation israélo-libanaise. L'auteur copie ce schéma, pas moi. Vous vous trompez de cible.

Dans la situation actuelle, un affrontement haitiano-domicain n'est pas souhaitable, et je doute fort qu'il soit simplement possible.

J'ai rapporté la nouvelle d'Omega ici pour faire réagir les autres internautes, pour la dénoncer, et non pas pour la défendre. Je l'ai toutefois présentée de manière neutre, mais c'était uniquement pour laisser libre cours aux autres réactions.

Nous sommes du même côté dans ce débat. D'ailleurs je note que vous avez fait rapidement le rapprochement avec le conflit du Moyent-Orient, qui est une première indication de la légéreté de l'auteur. Il y a aussi un choix complètement fantasque de départements (que les dominicains occuperaient) et d'autres nombreuses fausses informations.

Mon post est là simplement pour mettre en garde les autres internautes contre ce site qu'avait posté innocemment Gwotoro.

misye jude, mwen di sa nan yonn nan repons ke mwen bay yo,--- mwen rekonet ke si sivil la pa fe pati de gouvenman, ke zak kriminel kont li paka konsidere kom yon deklarasyon de guerre. si li se yon manm ofisyel gouvenman etranje ya, sa se yon lot zafe, men gen lot krite ki atabli avan kidnapin sivil ka konsidere lejitimman kom yon deklarasyon de guerre.
par ekzanp, gen 2 kritere pou ki etabli nan ka yon kidnapin yon sivil pou li vini yon deklarasyon de guerre:

1) fok sivil ki kidnape ya se yon ofisyel nan gouvenman peyi li, eke kidnapin li lye direkteman ak fonksyon li kom ofisyel gouvenman an.

2) fok yo ka prouve ke kidnapin nan fet avek enkourajman ou ak konplisite ou pasivite gouvenman lokal la. par ekzanp, le ti mesye ayatollah komehini yo te kidnape travaye ambasad ameriken yo, ak sa se te yon deklarasyon de guerre ke li te ye.
si amerika te voye marines pou ekraze revolisyone yo, li tap gen lejitimite moral.

nan ka ayiti ya, shef gang yo pa nan gouvenman, yo pap jwi de iminite gouvenman paske gouvenman an komanse touye de twa ladan yo.
le fini tou yo pa fe pati de gouvenman ki se ka hezbollah nan lakou liban.

Jude

Tout d'abord la remarque que vous aviez citée n'etait pas pour vous reprocher.Vous dites qu'Aristide a payé en 2004 la dette contractée en 1994.Je ne suis pas en mesure de confirmer ou d'infirmer votre hypothese.Ce dont j'en suis certain à la place d'Aristide en 1994 j'aurais utilisé aussi l'autre bout du meme baton pour chasser les vendeurs du temple.

Le renversement d'Aristide en 2004 est du à son immaturité. C'etait previsible ;tout le monde savait depuis longtemps avant meme l'evenment la chute d'Aristide.J'ai un ami qui me reprochait mon entetement à vouloir proteger la stabilite du pays;alors que la chute d'Aristide etait imminente depui le mois de juin 2003.Pouvait-il empecher le coup d'etat ;je suis persuade qu'il pouvait le faire.C'est la rationale de la phrase que vous aviez mentionnée;d'autres [presidents moins populaires qu'Aristide ont pu resister à l'ingerence des Etas-unis en haiti.Pourquoi John Kennedy et la CIA n'avaient-ils pas pu renverser Francois Duvalier?Alors il faut comprendre que Les Etats-unis n'ont pas toujours le pouvoir de faire et defaire les chefs d'etat.Ceux qui pratiquent le "roulem de bo "sont parfois les victimes de leur manque de conviction et de fermeté.Les pays n'ont pas d'amis il n'ont que des interets.

Hahahaha ! Observer, apa w'ap fè de posts ki vid ! Se pou w kite statu "Junior" a pi vit ?


Haiti est un cas un peu particulier. Le problème ici serait civile, et non politique. De simples problèmes civils peuvent suffirent de prétexte à une occupation. Par exemple l'occupation américaine d'Haiti au début du siècle dernier, où l'excuse était que les haitiens étaient sauvages entre eux.

OBSERVER KEEN a écrit:misye jude, mwen di sa nan yonn nan repons ke mwen bay yo,--- mwen rekonet ke si sivil la pa fe pati de gouvenman, ke zak kriminel kont li paka konsidere kom yon deklarasyon de guerre. si li se yon manm ofisyel gouvenman etranje ya, sa se yon lot zafe, men gen lot krite ki atabli avan kidnapin sivil ka konsidere lejitimman kom yon deklarasyon de guerre.
par ekzanp, gen 2 kritere pou ki etabli nan ka yon kidnapin yon sivil pou li vini yon deklarasyon de guerre:

1) fok sivil ki kidnape ya se yon ofisyel nan gouvenman peyi li, eke kidnapin li lye direkteman ak fonksyon li kom ofisyel gouvenman an.

2) fok yo ka prouve ke kidnapin nan fet avek enkourajman ou ak konplisite ou pasivite gouvenman lokal la. par ekzanp, le ti mesye ayatollah komehini yo te kidnape travaye ambasad ameriken yo, ak sa se te yon deklarasyon de guerre ke li te ye.
si amerika te voye marines pou ekraze revolisyone yo, li tap gen lejitimite moral.

nan ka ayiti ya, shef gang yo pa nan gouvenman, yo pap jwi de iminite gouvenman paske gouvenman an komanse touye de twa ladan yo.
le fini tou yo pa fe pati de gouvenman ki se ka hezbollah nan lakou liban.

Rodlam Sans Malice a écrit:Jude

Tout d'abord la remarque que vous aviez citée n'etait pas pour vous reprocher.Vous dites qu'Aristide a payé en 2004 la dette contractée en 1994.Je ne suis pas en mesure de confirmer ou d'infirmer votre hypothese.Ce dont j'en suis certain à la place d'Aristide en 1994 j'aurais utilisé aussi l'autre bout du meme baton pour chasser les vendeurs du temple.

Le renversement d'Aristide en 2004 est du à son immaturité. C'etait previsible ;tout le monde savait depuis longtemps avant meme l'evenment la chute d'Aristide.J'ai un ami qui me reprochait mon entetement à vouloir proteger la stabilite du pays;alors que la chute d'Aristide etait imminente depui le mois de juin 2003.Pouvait-il empecher le coup d'etat ;je suis persuade qu'il pouvait le faire.C'est la rationale de la phrase que vous aviez mentionnée;d'autres [presidents moins populaires qu'Aristide ont pu resister à l'ingerence des Etas-unis en haiti.Pourquoi John Kennedy et la CIA n'avaient-ils pas pu renverser Francois Duvalier?Alors il faut comprendre que Les Etats-unis n'ont pas toujours le pouvoir de faire et defaire les chefs d'etat.Ceux qui pratiquent le "roulem de bo "sont parfois les victimes de leur manque de conviction et de fermeté.Les pays n'ont pas d'amis il n'ont que des interets.

Tiens encore un point commun : j'étais également pour la stabilité en 2004. Chasser Aristide ne pouvait rien amener de bon, et il était visible que Apaid manipuler les étudiants (ainsi que d'autres membres du secteur privé). D'ailleurs les étudiants ne lui ont pas pardonné, bien que les chefs de file aient trouvé certaines compensations. Guy Philippe n'avait absolument rien d'intéressant non plus.
D'ailleurs, nous savons aujourd'hui quelles ont été les conséquences de Février 2004.

Les Etats-Unis ne sont pas tous puissants en Haiti, bien sûr. C'est nous qui leur offrons notre gorge comme des imbéciles.
Vous avez demandé pourquoi Aristide a pu être chassé alors que Duvalier ne l'a pas été. D'après la réponse est simple : Aristide est parti parce que les Américains ont dit à ses gardes du corps (américains) d'arrêter de le protéger. Duvalier avait une garde haitienne, lui.
Comment peut-on imaginer qu'un petit groupe de "révolutionnaires" et quelques étudiants puissent faire partir Aristide ? Ce n'est pas possible, et ce n'est pas ce qui s'est passé.
Il faut être naif ou stupide pour croire ça.

Duvalier n'a pas pu etre chasse aussi parce qu'il faisait le travail des Americains, alors on lui permettait certaines "frequencites". Tout comme on a permis a Saddam Hussein de commettre les atrocites pour lesquelles on est en train de le juger aujourd'hui, parce que a cette epoque, il etait utile aux Americains.


Aristide, lui, n'etait plus utile aux Americains.

Sans Malice Ekri :

Bon ou di ke se 8 millyon ki te pral leve deyè l;eske se vre?Koté 300000 moun sayo te ye?ou vle di te genyen 300000 zonbi ki te ap manifeste kont Aristide?(lol).Ki jen fè ti Guy pat resevwa menm 300000 bilten moun sayo ni tout lot kandida yo pa resevwa tou kantitwe bilten sayo.?

Bon mwen ba w defi: kite Aristide tounnen nen peyi ya poul poze kandidati li lè menda Preval la fini.Si nou genyen GNB vre kite Arisitde tounen epi li bat nou pi red enko.Sa map jwe lajan ak ou.se pa ke mwen ta renmen Aristide tounnen nen politik nen peyi ya non men lè wap vinn di m ke se 8 milyon moun ki te opral leve kont li wap ba tet ou menti, Viktwa Preval montre ke se pa vre.

Sans Malice,

Mete matirite'w deyo, se pa tout moun ki kont Aristide ki te oblije vote pou Guy.

Vrè defi-a se kite Jean-Claude Duvalier tounen, pou'w wè si li pap bat nou tout ti goshis demagog "combined", epi Sans Malice wou genten bliye ke Fanmi Lavalas te patisipe nan eleksyon 2006 yo?

Eske wou ka raple'm pousantaj ke yo te rekolte-a ?

Nou do konnen se an 1990 nou ye la-a, bay vwal mwen van pou m'al naso.

An pasan, al jete yon koudèy sou moun.com.

Thunder

Ki moun ki pa vle Jean Claude Duvalier tounnen ;President Preval fè deklaratyon pou tout eksile.Zafè emperè ti Nicolas se lè na mouri na bliye rev saa.De factyon fanmi lavalas al nen elektyon ,kom Preval genyen plis bon renome se li ke pep la vote o lye yo vote bazin.Aristide te bay pep la mo li ou pa shonje."Yo pa konn retire trip pou mete pay".Depi ti Pè ya te finn di mo saa pep la te konprenn.Se wou ki pat konprenn.

Al fè yon ti arithmetik .fè adityon tout vwa Charles baker ,Manigat ak guy epi wa wè ke apre nou se nou.La fos se nou ti gason.Menm si mwen pa la enko make sa nen kanè w.Pep la pa bet jen nou kwè.

Mwen pa beswen li oken grimas sou moun.com yo tout se yon paket nostaljik talon kikit.Si yo beswen joure mwen kom se nen sa yo pi fo di yo ekri malpwopwte yo sou opl map tenn nou.

Ki koze sa-a ? se la demokrasuuuuuuuu wi! menm jan ke y'ap reve ak anperè Aristide-la, lot moun gen dwa reve anperè Ti Nicolas tou wi.

Apa w'ap pale'm de 2 fraksyon lavalas ? Sans Malice pa eseye lolo'm tande, si sa'w di ya se te vre ato konsa se pa de "mobilizasyon mansh long" pou ti nèg ta ap fè pou retou lisifè. Poukisa pou lavalas ap mobilize la-a, si se yo ki o pouvwa ? Mwen pa konprann bagay sa-a ? talè na di se estrateji politik, se pa de ri non nou pa ap fè mwen ri la-a dèyè computer-a

Nou pa santi ke Preval pran bon distans ak nou ? se pa divizyon m'ap preshe non, men se yon konstatasyon. Kisa Preval ap tann pou li di, depi tann dat sa-a : YON SèL NOU FèB, ANSANM NOU FO, ANSANM ANSANM NOU SE LAVALAS.

Sans Malice, wou bliye jan nou t'ap sipliye nan pye Preval anvan eleksyon yo ? pou'l te fè alyans ak nou, men li te refize kategorikman. Jiska prezan an Ayiti, si genyen yon opozisyon politik konn se Fanmi Lavalas epi w'ap vinn pale'm de kwèdèk.

Reveye'w Sans Malice wou sanble nan domi toujou

PS._ pou'm fini, nan pren moun ki joure'w sou moun.com ; se kèk imaj ke mwen mete pou'w kade solda lisifè yo ki an aksyon, ale nan sijè : SANS MALICE, JOEL, PIPORIKO !

Mwen pa deja di w ke mwen pa genyen anyen pou m li nan moun.com,Ou pa ka pale de Emperè Aristide,Li te finn yon premye manda li pat fè koken: di pep la ba li yon lot manda ,ni li pat touye Senatè poul te di li a vi.Nou toujou ap shashe sal bon moun pou nou jistifye krim ke nou te fè yo.

Ki moun ki tap priye Preval poul fè alyans ak nou an. an tou ka se pa mwen.Menm jan St Pierre te renye jesus yon moun pa ta dwe etonne si Preval di li pa lavalas.Men li dwe sonje premye lapli ki te fè pitimil donnenl .Mwen konen en politique la reconnaissance est une lachete.Men tou ayity se tè glise.Ou pap janm ka divise pep la.Mwen di w anko apre nou se nou.

Bon ou konnen si m te nou mwen ta wont apre resilta ke nou bay nen elketyon ki sot pase la.malgre magouy nou te vle fè men pousentaj nou remet la te telman ba menm Latorue pat ka fè anyen pou nou. nou pa bouke pran souflet nan men pep la.

Zafè pou nou retounnen vinn volo a fè nou aveg e soud.Ekri vye bagay ou a sou opl ma gade l epi ma ba w repons; mwen efase adress moun lan nen konpitè mwen ,

Pou'm kite koze sa-a ki pap pote oken fwi, m'ap di'w yon kishoy. Pèp-lan te vote an 1987 ki fason, e nan ki kondisyon ke li ap bay yon moun yon manda, si wou pa respekte kondisyon sa yo, se pa pèp-lan ki ba'w manda asosye.

Wi, pandan plizyè fwa Fanmi Lavalas te envite Preval pou shita pale e fè yon alyans anvan eleksyon yo, men li te refize.

Se shak politisyen ki genyen yon zanno kay ofèv, wou paka ap pale de engratitid Prezidan Preval, wou bliye si se gout dlo K-Plim ki te fè premye pitimi Aristide donnen tou. Epi premye lokal pati politik ki te brile an Out 1991 lè li te finn pran pouvwa se te FNCD-KID.

Yon lot bagay, ki moun wou wè ki ap bat ko'l la-a ? Wou pa wè tout moun ki te pèdi nan eleksyon al shita sou blok glas yo ? Wou tande pale de Gourgue ? de K-plim ? wou pa wè yo tout montre ke yo genyen nen nan figi yo ?

Ki pati politik wou wè ki ap jwe rol move pèdan la-a ? menm apre 1 % nan dènye eleksyon yo, ki pati ki pa konprann lè pèp-la ba yo yon souflèt ? ki pa konnen pou'l flanke ko'l yon kote e kite peyi-a mashe ? depi apre prestasyon sèman Preval, ki pati ki mete moun nan lari pou "mobilize" ?

Sans Malice ouvri ja'w.

PS._ Lè mwen te ale sou moun.com nan se pa pou'm te joure'w asosye men se te pou'm mete imaj pou wou ka gade, sit OPL-lan menm jan ak isi-a, wou paka mete foto.

Attention Thunder

wou ka insérer yon image sou fowom an dans la boite insérer une image...

mon she ou se yon blage wi, yo pral vote duvalier en mass? se sa ou vreman thunder?
peyi sa menm, se yon piyay ke li ye?
ki peyi duvalier pral gouvene anko?
se pa sel stabilite pa yon kondisyon sifizant pou shanje peyi.
stabilite duvalier te kreye ya, se avek laperez ak represyon dwa moun li te fe li, eske se pseudo-stabilite sa ke nou gen reminisans pou li ya?
gen yon gwo filozof angle ki di ke tout gwo mouvman ki shanje direksyon espes zimen soti pa fe lot bagay kraze ak brize sosyete ki bay li nesans lan.
sa kap pase an ayiti ya la se yon katalis pou yon dyalog onet ki ap gen pou efe pou konsyentize tout koush sosyal yo.
nou tout nan menm bato kap koule, li pa fe diferans si ou nan premye klas ak kabin vitre ou yon lot ki anba avek rat yo.
depi yon sosyete ke tout ka viktim, san diferans resous ekomik, li nan wout pou vre devlopman sosyal.
se nan kawo ke organizasyon soti( pwose ki bay ak self-oganizasyon dyaman, se nan kokin shenn eksplozyon ke li soti).
mwen pa yon anashis, men mwen rekonet ke istwa montre ke tout konsyentizasyon kolektif ki nesese pou restriktirasyon yon entite sosyal soti nan sekous anashi.
kote yon fatalis we ekoulman ayiti, mwen menm mwen we yon bak pou ka avanse douvan, menmjan yon mashin ki pral aserele an avan toujou fe yon ti bak avan li vanse douvan.
5 lane sa yo komanse shanje mantalite yon paket moun, ke li se pitit *soyet pov ou pitit *soyey rish.

* gen de group soyet an ayiti, soyet ki rekonet ke li se soyet( moun pov yo)-- paske yo rekonet ke yo se soyet, yo gen plis shans pou yo ka byen edike tet yo paske yo pa gen yon ilizyon de stati objektif intelektyel yo), potensyalite yo rete inkonronpi; lot gwoup la se ti group zentinlektyel ak tetzokrat yo, yo menm yo soyet tou, men yo pa rekonet sa paske devan mas pep la, yo pase kom gwo jeni kweke yo pa kontribiye aryen kontribitif ou orijinel nan evolisyon konesans lezom.
paske disparite ant yo menm ak mas pep la si telman laj, yo panse ke yo menm yo arive nan apoje yo kipemet yo devlope yon atitid pedantik ki baze selman sou elokans lingwistik.
rezilta a, se yon sosyete kote boy ap mennen aveg, men avantay aveg la genyen, seke se katarak li genyen, si li jwen yon bon ti dokte ki ekipe ak LASEK teknoloji, yap elimine katarak la kote li ap we nan tou de zye li, tandiske boy yon grenn je te kreve nan move aprantisaj li, pagen aryen ki pral fe li we ak de grenn je.
setadi, tout fiti devlopman peyi ya depann de potensyalite zimen moun ki poko fet yo ak moun ki poko konronpi intelektyelman.
li ta vle yon paradox aparamman, men avni peyi ya depann de moun ki poko pase nan moul kap rabi sevel tet moun nan peyi.
se menm fenomen sa ki esplke ki jan subway system nan new york city sanble yon radot le konpare ak subway system nan peyi lashin.
yonn fet le teknoloji te immature, tandiske lot la fet gen yon teknoloji ki mature.
simileman, moun ki edike jodia ya an ayiti edike nan yon sistem ki rabi moun tandiske moun ki poko fet yo ak moun ki poko edike gen shans pou yo edike nan system ki ka korespon ak vre devlopman intelektyel yon ajan imen.

Tankou Sixto ta di ou se yon ti jenn nonm ki trouble an 87 mwen te kwè se nou ki te vle pran yon roulib nan men Namphy;lè nou te vle fè l konprann se nou ki shef apre ke li te finn mete nou Presiden li voye nou an eksil. mwen pa konprann analoji ou fè la.

Mwen pa pale de engratitid Presiden Preval non mwen di si li ta di li pat janm nan Lavalas se menm jan lè St pierre te renye Jesus lè yo te pral krusifye li.Epi si se pa koken yo fè mete Jean Juste ak neptune nan Prison te pa Preval ke pep la tap shwasi.Se sak fè menm ki fè jean juste pran kout prison. mwen ap sispann pale ak ou paske mwen pa pale ak moun ki soud .

Tout moun sous sit saa konnen ke mwen se pa yon fanatik Aristide.Sepandan fok yon moun rekonet ke pami kreten ki te nen konpetityon ak li se li sel ke pep la te shwasi.Si yon moun pat rekonet Aristide kom yon Presiden lejitim nen peyi ya nanpren reson pou yon moun diskite ak w.

Sans Malice,

Se pa shita ap ekri sou papye, ke Aristide te lejitim, men se montre sa pa A+B. vini ak kont agiman pa'w pou'w pwouve'm ke li te lejitim epi m'a dako ak wou, san bri san kont.

Lè mwen pale'w de vot pèp-lan an 1987, mwen te vle pale de vot konstitisyon-an. Se ladann ke pèp-lan te bay nan ki kondisyon pou yon moun jwenn yon manda. Se pa ak yon gwoup delenkan pou'w desann nan KEP sou delmas al mete kaotshou nan kou komisè polis ki deside arete yon moun ki genyen yon zam ilegal sou li. pou'w fose ke KEP-la aksepte ke wou depoze kandidati'w menm lè ke wou pa ranpli tout kondisyon yo.

Marc-Henri,

Merci pou enfomasyon sa-a, a lavni m'ap mete'l an aplikasyon.

Observer Keen,

Eske se 10 zan ke lavalas fè ap deshèpiye kès leta, represion politik, arestasyon abitrè, drug dealing, asasina politik, ke w'ap eseye jistifye la-a ? di'm byen avan ke mwen reponn wou.

anplis, se pa mwen non ki te di ke se Duvalier ki se prezidan "le plus regrette" pandan 50 denyè ane yo, se te dapre yon sondaj ki te fèt an Ayiti nan fen ane 2005 pou louvri pou 2006-la.

Mon shè Thunder

Ou se yon nonm korek si w genyen dwa site bagay ou di ke lavalas fè nen 10 zan ke yo fè ak gouverne peyi ya nen premye paragraf la epi ou jwen moyen pou di ke ayisyen di ke yo regrete Duvalier e byen se Windsor k.Laferière kite genyen reson lè li te di ke Duvalier fè tout ayisyen tounnen zonbi.Tenkou yo konn di en angle;" There are statistics and there are lies."

thunder, let me tell you something that you may have forgotten:
if an election has been confirmed to have irregularities, that does not necessarily make the official result illegitimate.
why?
for the result to be illegitimate, the contenders must prove that the irregularities are done in such a way that without them, the result would have been otherwise.
Remember, the burden of proof is on the accuser--- for instance, Mr. Obrador in Mexico claims fraud and presents evidences and succeeds in getting a partial recount that reduces the official initial lead against him from 240,000 to a mere 4000. Therefore, His demand for a total recount is legitimate given the already significant corrective result of a partial recount; But, that was not the case in the two elections of former president Aristide with regard to the perpetual opposition because the evidences can be deduced from the recent polls themselves.

Thunder, let's think this through together without fanaticism or antagonism:
who were the main contenders against former president Aristide?
I can reasonably assume that they were SERGES GILLLES, MANIGAT, and K-PLIM.
What did the recent polls show?
It unmistakingly showed that after many political fusions involving those relatively main contenders, their combined electotal gain did not exceed 25% of the general electorate.
what does that tell you as a political observer?
it means that these political parties' recognition is due more to media than to popular affiliation.
NOW, how does that relate to the parliamentary elections upon which the perpetual opposition had based its rallying cry?

Look at the make-up of the senate today: it is composed mainly of Lespwa, opl, fusion, kid and lavalas.
if one reexamines the results of the parliementary elections, one will unmistakingly see a clear pattern: the OPL, FUSION AND KID senators are predominantly third and second senators, and that the candidate in fourth position( the runner-up loser) is either lespwa or lavalas. In addition, the margin between the second, third and fourth position tends to be very small.
When taking this pattern into consideration with respect to recent history, one can safely argue the following:
In the absence of political fusions and the desintegration of the lavalas party into divergent offshoots( i.e louvri barye), these second and third senate candidates of FUSION and KID would have received less vote which would have lessened an already small victory-margin to the point of defeat.
In other words, without the recent political fusions, the third and second senators would more than likely be lespwa or lavalas.
In conclusion, since lespwa has unmistakable affinities with lavalas, and that, in fact, many of its current senators are former lavalas candidates, one can reasonably assume that the majority of their electorate would have voted for lavalas in their absence or that of their party; and since lespwa was not a party during the parliementary elections contested by the perpetual oppositin, and since there were no political fusions as we have seen them in the last elections, and since the margin between second, third and fourth positions was very small, it becomes readily obvious to an impartial analyst that the results of the contested parliementary elections of 2000 would reflect those of 2006.

THUNDER, I have a very simple question for you:
if a team does not go on the filed to contest a game, can it legitimately claim that it was victimized by a viscious referee after being eliminated via forfeight?

Après cet intéressant raisonnement, j'aimerais souligner une chose qui n'a pas été suffisemment mise en exergue à mon avis : the desingration of the lavalas party.
Si l'on considère la théorie de l'évolution de Darwin, ceci n'est pas innocent.

Etant donné que le thème du forum semble être le changement de l'état et de la société haitienne, il serait sage de ce demander pourquoi cette évolution a-t-elle eu lieu ?
Pour éclaircir le problème qui peut paraître flou à ce stade, j'aimerais que nous considérions la baisse de la popularité du parti lavalas et que nous le remettions en question, sans parti pris, sans préjugé, pour avoir une idée de la raison pour laquelle il n'a pas gagné les dernières élections.


Une fois ceci fait, j'aimerais que nous considérions le fait que l'essence même de la société haitienne est en voie avancée de délinquessence, et que nous nous demandions si une société non structurée ne réprensente pas une menace suffisante pour justifiée un rappel à l'ordre musclé de l'étranger.
Prenons au hasard l'exemple d'une intervention militaire dominicaine, justifiée par le fait que l'ONU n'est pas d'une grande efficacité.
Ce qui est la question à l'origine de ce thread.


Je pense que vous avez compris ce que je suis en train de faire : "coller" les deux idées développées dans ce thread, l'intervention militaire et la question du parti politique à l'haitienne.
Ces questions étant étroitement liées, je pense qu'on gagnerait à les confronter.

Merci d'avance pour vos contributions.

FANMI LAVALAS N'AVAIT PAS PARTICIPE AUX DERNIERES ELECTIONS.lA DIRECTION DU PARTI ETAIT EMASCULEE,EMPRISONNE ET EXILEE.L'AMBASSADE AMERICAINE AVAIT CO-OPTE QUELQUES VENDUS POUR LE VIDER DE SA SUBSTANCE.AU OU L'ON NSE PARLE ,QUI PEUT SE TARGUER DE METTRE DANS LA RUE 1 DEMI MILLIONS DE PERSONNES.DANS LES PROCHAINS MOIS,VOUS ALLEZ VOIR CE QUE C'EST FANMI LAVALAS.LES RESPONSABLES SONT ENTRAIN DE PREPARER LES SENATORIALES DE 2008.

jude, considering the media's systematic assassination of the lavalas-party to which every crime on our soil is delibrately linked, and the fact that the party was in internal disarray prior to elections, its ability to win two senate seats is not a sign of weakness, but rather that of resilience.
in terms of evolution, this is amazing, being able to do relatively well in the senate with minimal number of candidates while the party was under clouds of suspiscion and scandal. many candidates could not campain freely without being harrassed or threatened by former soldiers; the party's leaders were either exiled or incarcerated. jude, if one survives a plane-crash with two amputated legs in which most people would have been carbonized, then the survivor's sustained injuries should not be perceived as a sign of weakness but rather that of strenght.

jude, fusion and KID did not do much better despite their unified platform and their apparent public re-emergence as the so-called saviors of democracy by forcing out the so-called dictatorship of former president Aristid.

P.S: I hope that I have answered your questions at least in part!!!!