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Forum Haiti : Des Idées et des Débats sur l'Avenir d'Haiti
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Message  Doub-Sossis Lun 1 Nov 2010 - 20:58


HAITI THOMAS di TOMAS

TONAS!!!!OU TOUNEN ANKORR!!!

MWEN PA DIW

PA GEN MOUN KI RELE TOMAS ICI

WOU PA WE OU PASSE ICITTE LA DEJA!!!





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Message  Doub-Sossis Mar 2 Nov 2010 - 20:10

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Message  Le gros roseau Mer 3 Nov 2010 - 0:11

Bon si yon moun ap gade foto saa fok ou di ke peyi saa se yon peyi ki modi,se komsi syklonn lan vire kareman pou li al frape ayiti.

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Message  Doub-Sossis Mer 3 Nov 2010 - 19:37

IMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
BARAHONA WESTWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...
LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS THE CENTER NEARS HAITI.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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Message  Doub-Sossis Mer 3 Nov 2010 - 21:40

Haïti - Tomas : Double risque pour Haïti
03/11/2010 15:18:50

Le centre de la dépression tropicale Tomas est en train de se reformer et pourrait redevenir, s’il se renforce, une tempête tropicale dans les prochaines 48 heures.

La dépression tropicale Tomas est actuellement centrée à environ 505 km (315 miles) au Sud-Ouest de Port-au-Prince, et environ 395 km (245 miles) au sud-sud-est de Kingston, Jamaïque, à la latitude 14,8 Nord et longitude 75,0 Ouest, selon le Centre national des ouragans à Miami (NHC).

La dépression tropicale Tomas a des vents maximums soutenus de 56 km/h (35 mph) et se déplace au nord-nord-ouest à 11km/h (7 mi/h).

L'imagerie satellitaire et les données préliminaires d'un avion de « l'Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter » indiquent que le centre de Tomas est en train de se reformer au Nord de son emplacement précédent. Un virage vers le nord est attendu dans les prochaines 48 heures, et le centre de Tomas pourrait approcher Haïti vendredi. Cette nouvelle trajectoire pourrait être plus dangereuse puisqu’elle passerait beaucoup plus près de la capitale Port-au-Prince. La nouvelle trajectoire est en cours d’élaboration et devrait être probablement disponible dans les prochaines heures.

Comme nous l’avions précédemment mentionné, le danger de Tomas ne vient pas de la force de ses vents mais de l’importance de ses précipitations et de son lent déplacement. D’après les prévisions disponibles, Tomas pourrait produire, sur une grande partie d'Haïti, une accumulation de pluie totale de 127 à 254 mm (5 à 10 pouces).

1 mm de pluie correspond à 1 litre d’eau au mètre carré. Dans quelques endroits isolés les précipitations pourraient atteindre jusqu’à 381 mm (15 pouces). Ces pluies pourraient causer des coulées de boue dans les terrains montagneux, des glissements de terrains, des éboulement et provoquer des crues et d’importantes inondations.

En plus des dangers directs liés à ces pluies, ces dernières représentent un risque supplémentaire important pour l’épidémie de choléra. Des rivières contaminées en crue, peuvent répandre la bactérie du choléra à travers des régions entière et provoquer une crise sanitaire de grande ampleur, dont personne ne peut prédire les conséquences. De plus, les inondations et leurs conséquences sur les infrastructures routières, rendront beaucoup plus difficile et plus lent l’accès aux patients atteint du choléra ayant besoin de soins urgent. Enfin, certaines structures de soins pourraient être menacées et nécessiter le déplacement de patients atteint du choléra, ce qui impliquera une délicate logistique dans les circonstances.

Lire aussi :
http://www.haitilibre.com/article-1567-haiti-climat-le-point-sur-tomas-moins-de-48-heures-avant-impact.html

YO TA DWE METIONNE KE ANPIL ZONES KI TE FRAGILISE PA TRANBLEMEN DE TERRE LA KA GEN LIQUEFACTION DE SOL AK TOUT LAPLI KE NOU KA RESEVWA. MWEN SISPEK NPIL KAY KA TOMBE NAN GLISSEMENT DE TERRAIN KI TE FRAGILISE YO.
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Message  Le gros roseau Mer 3 Nov 2010 - 23:38

mezanmi mwen genyen yon vye zanmim ki al antere vye manman li jeremi mwen ta swete li gen tan tounen.Ki kalite koze sa.gade kat la byen wi se ti pwent kiba ak dominikani ki ka touche men ayiti menm se nan zye siklonn lan menm li ye wi .se tou peyi ya net ki an danje.yo sot bay yon nouvel la genyen yonn nan zile kote li deja pase li touye 6 moun.mwen resi pè pou ayisyen vre fwa saa.Map mande si bon dye tande priyè ayisyen ,mwen pa rive nan pwen martine lan men mwen pa kache di sa fwam ebranle tout bon wi.

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Message  Doub-Sossis Jeu 4 Nov 2010 - 9:08

Se 3 catastrophes ki pwal additione ak yon gwo inconnu ki se cholera ki ka gaye like "wildfire".

Tropical Storm TOMAS

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

THIS AFTERNOON...TOMAS CONTINUES AS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED EAST OF A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL.
DESPITE APPEARANCES THAT THE SWIRL IS THE CIRCULATION CENTER...THE
AIR FORCE C-130 OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
ROTATING AROUND A BROADER MEAN CENTER. THE RECONNAISSANCE ALSO
OBSERVED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB AND EQUIVALENT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE OF ABOUT 45 KT...THOUGH THIS WIND VALUE COULD BE SLIGHTLY
GENEROUS.

THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT AS IT IS PRIMARILY
BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD INDUCE RECURVATURE OF TOMAS TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION OF ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 36
HR OR SO. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
POINT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 36 HR IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AT 48 HR AND
BEYOND...HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TOMAS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.
ONE GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...NOGAPS...HWRF...AND GFDL...CONTINUE TO SPEED THE CYCLONE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND HAVE IT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A STRONG COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SCENARIO...SHARED BY THE
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS...IS THAT THE CYCLONE WOULD BECOME SHEARED
AND SHALLOW...NOT PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH AND FRONT...AND MEANDER
EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUES...BY
DESIGN...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE
CORRECT. IN A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE COMPROMISE...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS
SOMEWHAT EQUATORWARD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

TOMAS HAS ABOUT A DAY OR TWO TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...VERY WARM
WATERS...AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BEYOND TWO DAYS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD EXPERIENCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY
COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS QUITE CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF DECAY-SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS AND NEARLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE
TRACK DOES TAKE THE CYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER EITHER EASTERN CUBA OR
HISPANIOLA FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS...THE CYCLONE WOULD BE WEAKER
THAN INDICATED HERE.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES
OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 16.6N 76.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 17.8N 75.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 72.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 24.8N 71.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 27.5N 69.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 28.5N 66.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 29.0N 64.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

NNNN

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Message  Doub-Sossis Ven 5 Nov 2010 - 15:55

Haiti Chape Bel....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html



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Message  Doub-Sossis Sam 6 Nov 2010 - 18:04

THE AFTERMATH

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