Dènye sondaj:Majorite moun anba tant di ya p vote pou Jean-Henri Céant

Haiti Presidential Elections:
Notary Jean-Henry Ceant
Favored By The Majority Of Displaced In Port-au-Prince Tent Cities,
New NOAH 2010 Presidential Election Poll Reveals

For Immediate Release

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Port-au-Prince Haiti/EWORLDWIRE/Nov 17, 2010 —
The results of a recent polling expedition to identify the next President of Haiti shows notary Jean-Henry Céant favored by nearly three of four (72%) respondents.
Michel “Sweet Mickey” Martelly was also mentioned as a preferred choice of those interviewed.

The four day polling research tour – conducted from Nov. 11-14, 2010, included both focus groups and in-depth interviews.

Most of the interviews were conducted in four of the largest campsites in and around the capital city where nearly 600,000 residents remain since the earthquake on January 12, 2010.

Pollster Shawnta Walcott stated: “In terms of outcomes, there will be no first- round knock-outs here. You can bet on a highly contested second-round showing. While the race is still too close to call, Céant appears to be the candidate gaining the most momentum. He’s backed by key members of former President Aristide’s Fanmi Lavalas Party; highly favored by Catholics, Protestants and Voudonists; gained the support of peasant movement leader Chavannes Jean-Baptiste – which proved to be a significant asset for René Préval in 1996; attracted crowds of over 50,000 spectators to rallies in the North; and during our field research, respondents sang and danced -celebrating hiscandidacy.

“As for other polls showing drastically different results in Port-au-Prince, I can only assume that they aren’t speaking to the folks on the ground.”

Shawnta Walcott is the former Director of Communication for Zogby International, the second largest polling firm world-wide.

During the 2000 Presidential elections in Haiti, Walcott worked with National Democratic Institute (NDI) on their efforts to install electoral information centers throughout the country. In 2005 Walcott returned to Haiti to conduct the only published poll during the presidential elections showing René Préval leading by significant margins. The 2005 poll was commissioned by the National Association for the Advancement of Haitians (NOAH) and election results fell within the margin of error.

For more information on the poll, contact Shawnta Walcott at
(202) 714-7771 or e-mail shawnta@arielandethan.com.

The National Organization for the Advancement of Haitians (NOAH) was founded in 1991 as a U.S. based 501(c)(3) not-for-profit social policy corporation in response to the refugee crisis resulting from political unrest and upheaval in Haiti.

NOAH serves as a national, non-partisan organization dedicated to the restoration and preservation of democracy in Haiti. NOAH is recognized as a public policy information clearinghouse and advocate for the democratization of Haiti and is consulted by the executive branch of the United States as an intermediary between the governmental and the private sectors within Haiti and abroad.

Learn more at NOAHHaiti.org
(http://www.noahhaiti.org).

HTML:

http://www.eworldwire.com/view_release.php?id=none

Sasaye,

Mezi lajan w mezi wangaw. Eske w pa panse se yon insult pou pep ayisien ke NOAH komandite yon sondaj ki pa yon sondaj ki reprezante tout pep Haitien an. Ki vle diw sou 10 millions Haitiens se sak anba tant yo nou te we nan repotaj ki di yap vote pou kandida kap bay lajan, se yo ki represantatif.

Sa pa etonem non de NOAH, ni de moun yo chwazi po bay 70%, 3 moun sou 4, se simn moun Ceant tap ditribuye manger bayo yo interviewe. sE MENM EKIP KITAP FE LOBBYING AK BLACK KOKINS MONTRE ARISTID KIJAN FE ZERO TOUNEN 9.

Method yo itilze a pa bon menm li extremement biaise nan fave yon sel kandidat, se menm ekip kitap fe sondaj sou intenet kitap bay menm kandidat sa komkwa devan mwen te demontel.

Mwen ta renmen we eske wap jwen yon jounal serieux Tankou Times kap piblie torchon desinformation sila alos ke pa BRIDES LA KI SCIENTIFIK FE LE TOUR DU MONDE.

Pa vin ensilte NOAH.
Òganizasyon sa a ,se petèt òganizasyon ki ede plis lan tout òganizasyon AYISYEN a letranje yo.Menm yon nèg tankou RENE PROSPER ke si n pa konnen ,se ansyen asistan sekretè DETA DWA MOUN sou gouvènman BUSH lan ,konn asiste lan konferans NOAH yo;yo pa lan pati pri.

Epitou ZOGBY INTERNATIONAL se tou san dout òganizasyon sondaj ki pi respekte OZETAZINI.Yo fè sondaj lan tout peyi.

Yon sèl bagay mwen ka di w SASAYE,se yon BONB ATOMIK ,ou lage la a.
Senatè HERIVEAUX ,genlè gen rezon lè l te di ayè sou RANMASE ke madan MANIGA pa p prezidan.

72% à 1 semaine du scutin

Cean klè ke lap mare Preval....

Ant 2 mal, Preval ap pito pran sa ki mwen vyolan an...

Mwen vle di, Preval ap kite Madan Manigat pase sou Ceant...

Ti Jude pap fè vot di tou pou yon koken ta fèt pou li...

T-NEG a écrit:72% à 1 semaine du scutin

72% des gens vivant sous les tentes.L'experte a remarqué qu'il y aura un deuxième tour.
Ce serait ""classique"",si ce serait un duel entre madame MANIGAT et JEAN HENRY CEANT.

MALGRE TOU BRI KAP FET MWEN PA KWE
MEN MWEN TANDE WYKLEF AP RANTRE HAITI LUNDI
ESKE LI PWAL ENFIN DI KILES LI ENDOSSE

COLO MEN BON KREOL

COLO WYCLEF SE YON "WILD CARD"
PERSON PA VREMAN KONEN KOTEL YE
LI KA APIYE MADAN MANIGAT TOU
YO FEM KONEN LI TE PALE AVEK LI NAN TELEPHONE

SIW SUIV BIEN MUSSIEU TOUJOU SOU BO MOUN KAP GENYEN AN
MUSSIEU PA RENMEN NAN CAMP "LOOSERS"

Colo

Si Wyclef ta rantre an ayiti al ba Ti jude jaret kom ou di ya li fini politikman an ayiti.mwen ta swete se pa vre apre deseptyon ke li pran nan men KEP ke Preval dirije ya.mwen deja di nou ke Michel martelly genyen yon pè las kache nan men li ;li ka fè diferans si genyen yon dezyem tou wi.Si madan Manigat konn fè politik se poul komanse voye kek geb flè pou Madan Martelly wi tankou Duvalier te konn voye flè pou madan kebreau.

Antouka kandida ki ap gen chans jwen bourad Wyclef ak gen 70 à 80 % chans genyen <eleksyon malatchonj> kil pral fèt la...
Mwen deja instale ti chèz ba m'poum suiv film la...

WI;

Kounye an ,CEANT se vyolan?
Gen nèp ki ap di tou ke WASHINGTON se madan MANIGA ou byen MARTELLY ke yo vle ,alòs ke KENNETH MERTEN limenm di ke li k ap travay ak nenpòt mesyedam ki prezidan.
Se sa menm ,WASHINGTON pa p enterfere ,paske pa gen youn lan mesyedam yo ki se yon menas a enterè ameriken.
SISPANN RANS!
SITOU E SITOU ,se ARTURO VALENZUELA ki an chaj ZAFÈ LATINO AMERIKEN lan DEPATMAN DETA.
Misye te kondane koudeta kont ARISTIDE lan ;misye te di ke koudeta a te kont enterè ameriken.Se VALENZUELA ki ranplase NORIEGA ,lan DEPATMAN DETA.

Alo, lan ipotèz tout moun ladan l lan, nou pa konsidere posibilite pou Wyklèf apiye Céant?
Yo di lan lari a ke Gi Filip pral bay Céant sipo l.

Céant kapab vanse san sipo mesye sayo, men sa pa ta etone m.

Doub,
Kom ekspè lan sondaj, èske w ka di m poukisa yo paka fè sondaj lan yon seksyon krisyal yon popilasyon?
Dayè moun ki anba tant yo soti lan tout klas sosyal lan peyi a. Sa pa vle di se ansyen moun Site Solèy sèlman.

Tout moun bay popilasyon anba tant yo priyorite kom se premye aksyon politik yo pral pran si yo vinn presidan.

Tranblemandtè a pat fè eksklisyon non, lè l te frape 12 janvye an.

Pinga moun sezi si lan premye tou a se Céant avèk Mately ki devan bann nan non.

Nan denye jou sa yo la youn endorsman Wyclef ou byen Guy Philippe ki pa mashe ak patisipasyon aktiv mesyw sa yo nan kanpay la plis lajan an menm tan pap pote rezilta eskonte yo!

Sasaye a écrit:

Doub,
Kom ekspè lan sondaj, èske w ka di m poukisa yo paka fè sondaj lan yon seksyon krisyal yon popilasyon?
Dayè moun ki anba tant yo soti lan tout klas sosyal lan peyi a. Sa pa vle di se ansyen moun Site Solèy sèlman.

Tout moun bay popilasyon anba tant yo priyorite kom se premye aksyon politik yo pral pran si yo vinn presidan.

Tranblemandtè a pat fè eksklisyon non, lè l te frape 12 janvye an.

Sasaye men mosso nan repons la, sondaj NOAH ankor pi mal paske apa se yon ``convenience sample`` li ba bazé sou methodologie estatistik classik li plito bazé sou ``Focus-group`` yon method ki tres contreversé, ki cheap et rézilta manipulab facilement sélon moun kap menen group la. Anplis rezilta yo pa kantitatif, yo plito qualitatif wou paka kalkile ki erreur ki ladan ni applike anken theorem statistik ou mathematik.
http://www.chronicpoverty.org/page/toolbox-focus-interviews

Convenience sampling or Accidental Sampling
Convenience sampling (sometimes known as grab or opportunity sampling) is a type of nonprobability sampling which involves the sample being drawn from that part of the population which is close to hand. That is, a sample population selected because it is readily available and convenient. It may be through meeting the person or including a person in the sample when one meets them or chosen by finding them through technological means such as the internet or through phone. The researcher using such a sample cannot scientifically make generalizations about the total population from this sample because it would not be representative enough. For example, if the interviewer was to conduct such a survey at a shopping center early in the morning on a given day, the people that he/she could interview would be limited to those given there at that given time, which would not represent the views of other members of society in such an area, if the survey was to be conducted at different times of day and several times per week. This type of sampling is most useful for pilot testing. Several important considerations for researchers using convenience samples include:
Are there controls within the research design or experiment which can serve to lessen the impact of a non-random convenience sample, thereby ensuring the results will be more representative of the population?
Is there good reason to believe that a particular convenience sample would or should respond or behave differently than a random sample from the same population?
Is the question being asked by the research one that can adequately be answered using a convenience sample?
In social science research, snowball sampling is a similar technique, where existing study subjects are used to recruit more subjects into the sample.

Mèsi Doub,

Repons w a trè korèk.

Pa gen derogasyon paske resilta sondaj la spesifye ke seksyon sa ke
yo enteroje yo bay Céant preferans yo.

Yo pa pretann ke se opinyon tout popilasyon an.