reverse psychology is the republican strategy this time!!!!

OBSERVER KEEN Dim 13 Jan 2008 - 18:30

"Reverse Psychology is Karl Rove's republican strategy in 2008".

Karl Rove and Newt Gingrich are two of the most formidable republican strategists in recent history. In fact, the former is solely responsible for the rise of Bush Jr. from governor of Texas to two-term president of the United States while the latter had devised a conservative strategy that led to republican domination of congress for more than a decade.

These two strategists are now using reverse psychology as a means of winning the elections for republicans in 2008. How are they doing that? Both Karl Rove and Newt Gingrich know something crucial about Hillary that their democratic counterparts have failed to emphasize. What Karl and newt know is that Hillary is no Bill Clinton--- that she fares very poorly with independent voters as demonstrated by both the analyzed results of Iowa and New Hampshire. What Karl and Newt are banking on is the following fact:

The next president of the United States will be determined in the end by independent and first-time voters; and giving the negative clout now hanging on the republican party, their best chance of retaining the white house is to have Hillary face McCain in the general elections. Why? it is because McCain does much better than Hillary with independent voters. in fact, recognizing his appeal to independent voters, particularly after they have rescued his candidacy in New Hampshire, McCain gratefully refers to independents as the "fastest growing third party in America".

In addition, both Newt and Karl know in their guts that their biggest fear is an Obama nomination. Why? It is because Obama, not only does he fare very well with independent voters as demonstrated by the results of Iowa and New Hampshire, he also brings in first-time voters in significant numbers. In fact, consistently against all the major republican contenders in hypothetical match-ups, Obama comes on top while Hillary loses most if not all; and that is no accident, because Obama's support among independents is more than twice that of Hillary.

The reverse psychology is already at work; in fact, many democrats have already fallen for it; for an increasing number of democrats are now thinking that it is a republican conspiracy to publicly favor Obama so as to beat him in the general elections. According to that argument, many republicans are supposedly funding the Obama campaigns as a means of supposedly subverting the democratic choice. In fact, while the hypothesis is true (it is true that republican pundits are publicly cheering for Obama) the conclusion deduced by these democrats is itself false (because it is not Obama that the republican strategists really want, but Hillary.) how does the strategy work? The strategy of reverse psychology in this case takes advantage of the nascent propensity of democrats, after the dramatic finish of the 2000 presidential elections, to claim republican conspiracy whether imagined or real. So just as in all propensities, this particular propensity can be taken advantage of. This is exactly what Karl Rove and Newt Gingrich are intending to do here. They know that by publicly cheering for Obama while apparently dogging Hillary, there will be rumors of a republican conspiracy supposedly involving the nomination of Obama. In reaction, Karl and Newt must have calculated that democrats would choose, as a counter-move, the more established candidate in the person of Hillary Clinton-- the candidate that fares very poorly with independents who, by the reverse psychology strategy, is the candidate that they really hope to face in the general elections. That situation would in the end give republicans their greatest chance of retaining the white house.

After all, Hillary is the only major democratic candidate that has consistently lost to the top republican contenders in most of the hypothetical match-ups; and again, that is no accident because Hillary’s support among independents is very weak.

It remains to be seen if American voters would fall for another trick from Karl Rove's magic hat; After all, older women, and blue-collar moms who represent Hillary’s core democratic support would not be sufficient to elect her first female president of the United States.